While Wednesday can’t come fast enough, it appears we must go through Tuesday to assess where we stand. While, like most others this cycle, the past week has been filled with an amplified sense of reactionary hysterics. If anything has become apparent, it is the relatively short-lived impact of “bombshell” negative campaigning. The wild polling shifts resulting from the infamous Access Hollywood tape of Trump faded almost as fast as the Comey bounce has faded for Trump.
It would seem both events were less impactful than thought; and happened to coincide with other unrelated events that will go unrecognized due to the tedious, boring nature of real politics. The “tightening” so gleefully reported by those attempting to squeeze the last ounce of ratings from this clown show, is a natural occurrence in every presidential election. What we are witnessing is a return to the basic tribalism and generic conditions of traditional Democrat vs. Republican presidential races.
With that said, I suppose a prediction is in order. It’s an admittedly poor attempt to appear a genius while providing the usual cover of “anything can happen,” so I could be wrong. It’s also difficult to offer a laser-like level of specifics in a forecast without access to internals of the campaigns, but here goes:
On Tuesday, America will once again keep the balance of power tilted to the left by electing a liberal as the 45th president of the United States… Jokes! I’ve got jokes.
As for which party gets the blame for the next four years of leftist overreach, it’s a safe bet that the democrats will preside over the White House during this decline.
The numbers appear to have been steady and deep since the last day of the conventions. All third party surging and fading aside, Clinton sewed her base up at the convention and started with 47%. It doesn’t make a rip what we think. Mitt Romney’s 47% wasn’t a gaffe. It was and is a fact. The little secret Romney didn’t share is the Republicans start at 47% as well. Except a funny thing happened on the way to the nomination— Trump managed to take what had already shifted demographically to 46% and suppress it to the low 40s. He failed to sew the rips and it’s been over ever since.
The tightening now, is merely the renegades returning to the tribe. It’s not enough. And without going into the details of the rivaling ground games, suffice it to say it’s worth a point or two.
I could certainly be underestimating here, but I suspect the third-party candidacies of Johnson, Stein, and McMullin will combine for, at most, 3-4% of the votes. This could have been a historical break-out year for the Libertarian party. But they opted for crazy over conservative, and what might have been with Austin Petersen, is a dream that’ll have to wait. But their failure guarantees a traditional election model.
So, expect a Clinton 49/50% Trump 46/47% national victory. Anything with a wider spread, expect the GOP to lose the senate. Yeah, I know, the electoral college. I’ll give her Nevada and North Carolina. I’ll give him FL (although this may be generous) and OH. And if Charlie Republican Brown hasn’t had Lucy yank the ball away enough in PA, she has a brand-new ball and a big smile on her face, promising she won’t do it again— if you’ll only come to Michigan. Therefore, the rest doesn’t matter.
The biggest tragedy of this election is the prediction that barring an unexpected wave of undecided’s breaking for the democrats, we will wind-up standing exactly where we stand today. Once again ruled by a progressive Democrat President, and a centrist (at best) Republican Senate and Congress.
The Senate isn’t a lock, but looks promising for the GOP. This status quo result will allow the both sides to claim victory and this whole thing can be chalked up as a big ‘ol “whatevs.” The upside of a status quo result, is the glaring necessity for a new party to bust up this binary illusion of single party rule. It must start immediately.
Hurry up Wednesday!