To hear Democrats frame the conversation about Brexit, it’s no big deal and has nothing to do with what will happen in America in November. Many Republicans are painting it as the best omen Donald Trump’s campaign has seen since his final competitors left the race last month. Both sides are right. Both sides are wrong.
The vote that is leading to detachment by the UK from the EU has several components that mirror the state of politics in the United States. The referendum against the status quo (albeit to return to a previous status quo) was encouraging for those of us who believe that the globalist agenda must fail while reclamation of freedoms must prevail. On the surface, this could be very bad for Hillary Clinton. In reality, it’s an issue that will likely fail to resonate in the short-attention-span world of Presidential election politics.
Passion over polls
Most of the polls leading up to the vote and some reported exit polls during the vote pointed to a Brexit failure. Even UKIP leader Nigel Farage conceded. As actual results started coming in, the polls were proven very wrong once again.
The conspiracy theorists and even some mainstream pundits have called this another example of a globalist agenda leading the way to shift polls in their favor. The easiest way to steal a vote is to drain hope from the opposite side. We’ve seen this work many times in the past, but we’ve also seen the opposite effect from time to time. When passions are very high, the risk of a loss can be turned into a driving force of passion. In other words, a bad poll can inspire action that counteracts the loss of hope.
Why Hillary should be worried: She’s leading in every major poll right now and is even extending her lead in some of the polls that would normally favor Trump. If the polls can’t be trusted, she may not have as easy of a road ahead as many perceive.
Why Hillary isn’t worried: Comparing the polls to actual results showed around a 4.1% swing for Brexit. Hillary’s average polling against Trump currently has her up by 5.9%
Conservatism over liberalism
There were many factors that compelled people to vote one way or the other, but at the end of the day this came down to the conservative concept of smaller government within the confines of a location versus the liberal concept of centralized government that gives consistent rule over a larger number of people.
There are those who see liberalism prevailing around the world, but this is a sign that conservatism may be bouncing back.
Why Hillary should be worried: She’s a liberal. If liberalism failed to keep the UK in the EU, could it also fail to keep a Democrat in the White House?
Why Hillary isn’t worried: Trump’s a liberal, too. The majority of his policy proposals are against what Brexit stood for in the minds of its people. If any of the other 16 candidates for the GOP nomination had won, this would be an issue. With Trump, it’s not. In fact, those who were passionate about Brexit loved only one component that is similar to Trump’s perspective, which is…
Fear over hope
Most on the left are painting this as a form or xenophobia, saying that the fear of a trickling invasion from foreigners is behind the vote. The immigration and free travel components of the EU were only parts of the problem, but it can be argued that fear of Muslims pushed many people over the edge.
Hope is for the young and more older people voted during the referendum.
Why Hillary should be worried:
We would need to see a complete absence of anything even remotely associated with radical Islamic terrorism for her to hit November unscathed by Brexit.
Why Hillary isn’t worried:
With a little over four months left before the general election, she has a very tight window for more terrorism to turn the tide in Trump’s favor. One probably wouldn’t call it “hope” but if there are no terror attacks in the U.S. before November, the “fear” that could drive people to vote for Trump will subside in many.
The bottom line is this: Brexit probably won’t affect the general election end results nor is it a true harbinger of what’s to come for America. If anything, there’s a chance that the “told ya so” liberals could paint Trump’s support for Brexit as a bad thing if the economic conditions in the UK and around the world take a sustained turn for the worst.