Failing to get 50% in New York is a death knell for Trump’s chances

Donald Trump New YorkDonald Trump is going to win the New York primary. He could walk out on 5th Avenue and shoot someone and would still win the state. HOW he wins the state will determine if his campaign carries on or if it’s dead in the water, even as the frontrunner.

He needs to come as close to a sweep as possible. The rules in New York are relatively simple:

  • 14 state delegates go to the candidate that gets over 50% of the total vote. If nobody gets 50%, the 14 delegates are divided up among those who get over 20% of the total vote.
  • 27 congressional districts have 3 delegates each. All three go to the candidate with over 50%. If no candidate has a majority, the winner gets 2 delegates and the runner-up gets 1.

With it being a 3-man race, he could win all 95 delegates. In fact, he almost certainly should win all of the delegates and probably would have if the primary was a month ago. A string of bad press that led to a string of bad losses have many undecided voters concerned about his overall viability as the GOP nominee. His meltdown has started and while he still has time to recover, he’ll need to make some drastic shifts in his campaign style.

Mathematically, the difference between getting 95 versus 80 delegates in the race to 1,237 is small. Everything else about missing the majority mark spells doom for his campaign.

Though the number of delegates is small, he needs every delegate he can get. He needs to win on the first ballot. If it goes to a second ballot, he will almost certainly lose unless his campaign can start pulling out miracles with the delegates (which you can never discount with Trump).

Perhaps more important in the whole equation is his lack of momentum. He’s been stagnant in picking up new supporters for nearly a month. Since Marco Rubio dropped out, Ted Cruz has won more delegates. Trump needs to get his mojo back in order to sweep the northeast primary on April 26. Cruz’s unexpected Maine victory is still fresh in Trump’s mind. He needs an ego boost to get him back to acting like a winner instead of sending out crude post-primary letters or whining about getting robbed.

The good news for Trump is that he’s favored to win the state with a majority and should only fail to get 50% in a handful of districts. The bad news is that even if he sweeps, he’s still facing a tough road to 1,237.

Videos like these won’t help him in his home state:

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Jesseb Shiloh

+Jesseb Shiloh is not-so-new to blogging. He enjoys things that most don't and doesn't mind and occasional nap. Find him on Twitter, Facebook, and Pinterest.