Marco Rubio was supposed to be the golden child of the Republican party, the man who could unite moderates and conservatives in a race to defeat the Democrats. That didn’t happen. His upcoming humiliation in his home state of Florida will secure the nomination for Donald Trump unless everyone unites around Ted Cruz.
There are only two lines left in the sand for Trump to cross if he’s going to get the nomination. He has to beat Cruz in Texas and he has to beat Rubio in Florida. Don’t bring up John Kasich and Ohio – his campaign is so low on funds that he might not even make it to Ohio. Cruz and Rubio have been the forces dividing the anti-Trump vote since Iowa and the result so far has been to allow Trump the advantage with 1/3rd of the Republican electorate.
Cruz will defend his line in the sand. Texas will vote for Cruz and give him the majority of the delegates. Rubio is down by over 20 points in Florida based upon some polls and even the most pro-Rubio pollsters have him losing the state by a large margin. He absolutely, positively cannot win the nomination outright.
Here’s the conundrum for those who oppose Cruz AND Trump. If you’re going with the Republican Establishment’s plan of getting a contested convention, then the last thing you want is for Cruz to fall in any of the SEC Primary states. If Trump wins all of them other than Texas, then he’ll be approaching 100% certainty that he’ll win the 1,237 delegates required to win the nomination outright. The best chance that Rubio or Kasich have of getting their contested convention is if Cruz can take some of the SEC Primary states. If he doesn’t this race is over.
Republicans have two choices: Trump or Cruz. A vote for anyone other than Cruz, including votes for Rubio, is actually a mandate for Trump to be the nominee. Whether you like Cruz or not, if you want to stop Trump, the only vote that will stop him is a vote for Cruz.