Of all the brilliant political moves that Donald Trump has made over the past several months, perhaps his best has been to manipulate the media and Iowa voters into thinking that this isn’t a two-man race. It is. It will become a one-man race if supporters for other candidates hold to the possibility that their candidate can beat him.
Between the “SEC Primaries” on March 1 and the current trend of voters shifting away from the lower candidates, Ted Cruz is best positioned to win the nomination and the Presidency. This message is being lost on many voters who are being strung along by Trump’s media into believing that their candidate has a chance rather than making the pragmatic decision to vote for their second choice, Cruz. Trump knows he has a plurality of first choices but that he’s near the bottom of the pack as second and third choices for voters. You either love him or hate him, so it behooves him to keep Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Rand Paul, and other candidates supporters in the mix for as long as possible.
Many are saying that Trump will win if enough voters get out to caucus in Iowa. This is only true if non-Trump supporters divide their votes among the candidates that cannot beat him. Cruz can beat him. He’s the only one who can.
As noted on Noozeez, “For Trump to lose, Cruz has to win in Iowa. In fact, he has to win big. Otherwise, Trump will dismiss Iowa as a “wacko” state and try to build momentum through New Hampshire and beyond.”
It’s always difficult to go with a second choice, a “consolation prize” in an election, particularly in a year when the stakes are so high. Still, we have to consider the likelihood of a Trump nomination if his momentum isn’t halted in Iowa. The only way to stop his momentum is a big loss in Iowa and the only one who can beat him is Cruz. This is why Rubio’s, Carson’s, Paul’s, Rick Santorum’s, and Mike Huckabee’s supporters must do the right thing and vote for him.
It’s going to happen on the other end. With Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Chris Christie so far back in the polls, many of their supporters who don’t completely dislike Trump are going to look at him as the strong alternative to the conservative ideals of Cruz. The Republican Establishment, which has maintained control of the party since Ronald Reagan left office, fears a Cruz administration more than a Hillary Clinton administration. They see Trump as more malleable to their manipulations if he were to win the general election, but they also realize that he would likely lose if nominated. As hard as it is to accept, the Mitch McConnells, Karl Roves, and Paul Ryans of the world see a Clinton administration as their way to at least maintain power over the party. By contrast, a Cruz administration will hamper them as badly or worse than the Reagan administration. They’ve worked too hard to maintain control and they’re not willing to give it up for the sake of the country.
Iowa is having its most pivotal caucus in history. If it goes for Trump, the party and the country are on the road to oblivion. Republicans who don’t want to see this happen must rally around the only person who can stop him from getting the nomination.